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Dealing with Volatility: What You Need to Know Now

Timely insights to help you manage risk when markets shift

 

 

 

May 14, 2019

Volatility and Opportunity Amid the Latest Trade Tensions

So, what just happened?
THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE dropped more than 600 points yesterday as China announced a new round of tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. goods. That was just the latest volley in a trade war that dramatically reheated last Friday when the U.S. raised tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%. “This sharp brinkmanship is pressuring stocks and other risk assets across the board,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.

Cyclical stocks in areas such as technology, industrials and consumer discretionary have taken the largest hit, Hyzy notes, and flaring tensions between the world’s two largest economies could do long-term damage if left unresolved. Yet both countries have strong incentives not to let that happen, he adds. And for now, the underlying economy and market conditions remain healthy.

Here’s our take on what this means.
Risks from the tariffs go well beyond rising prices for consumers and businesses. “The secondary effects on future capital investment, inventory accumulation, and supply chains are just as important. All of these could affect business confidence the longer the stalemate lasts,” he says.

"We believe that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal before we see major, negative consequences." —Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank

While we may see another round of “tit-for-tat” tariff increases, a full-blown trade war is unlikely, he says. “We believe that the U.S. and China will reach a trade deal before we see major, negative consequences.” Barring an extended trade war, Hyzy offers several reasons why he expects the bull market to resume:

  • The economy is in the early stages of a new growth phase that should extend well into 2020.
  • The Federal Reserve appears willing to keep plans to increase short-term interest rates on extended hold, even if inflation runs above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%.
  • China’s economic growth is stronger than many observers believe, giving China the flexibility for effective policies if the trade war intensifies in the short-term.
  • Overall financial conditions, including low interest rates and inflation, narrow credit spreads, healthy consumer confidence and a stable U.S. dollar, should help support business confidence and a healthier picture for emerging markets once the trade dispute ends.
  • Investors remain cautious, especially with stocks, thus limiting the possibility that markets will become over-valued.
  • Automation, big data, artificial intelligence and other developments will drive business productivity for years to come, supporting corporate profits and mitigating the effect of higher wages. “This should help smooth out the potential earnings weakness if the trade deal lasts longer than expected,” Hyzy says.

What should investors do right now?
“We will continue to closely monitor the trade confrontation,” Hyzy says. While unresolved disputes could ultimately affect the economy and markets, investors should stick to their long-term investment strategies and look for opportunities in an economy that remains healthy, Hyzy notes.

“We view this latest sharp weakness in the equity markets as a buying opportunity for long-term investors. We continue to prefer stocks versus bonds, the U.S. and emerging markets versus other regions, and large cap versus small cap stocks,” he adds. Promising sectors include some of those hardest hit by the latest volatility—including technology, financials and industrial companies. Meanwhile, ongoing consumer confidence creates opportunities in the consumer discretionary segment.

For more insights on current volatility and future economic growth prospects, read “A New Summit: Six Reasons for Higher Highs” from the Chief Investment Office.

Information is as of 05/14/19
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Opinions are those of the author and are subject to change.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Equity securities are subject to stock market fluctuations that occur in response to economic and business developments.
Investing in fixed-income securities may involve certain risks, including the credit quality of individual issuers, possible prepayments, market or economic developments
International investing presents certain risks not associated with investing solely in the U.S. Investing in emerging markets may involve greater risks than investing in more developed countries. In addition, concentration of investments in a single region may result in greater volatility.

 

 

December 18, 2018

With Volatility Up Again, Are Investors “On Strike”?

So, what just happened?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 500 points on Friday, evidence that, among investors, bearish sentiment is at its highest point in recent memory. That activity was followed on Monday by yet another drop of more than 2% for the S&P 500, hitting a new 2018 low. Over seven days ending December 12, investors pulled more than $45 billion from equity mutual funds and more than $14 billion from taxable bond funds, both record amounts, according to AMG Data Services.

Here’s our take on what this means.
“While U.S. economic news remains positive, investors are concerned about economies in other parts of the world, especially China and Europe,” says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust. Meanwhile, expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates this week has led to a so-called ‘buyer’s strike’ in both stock and bond markets, notes Hyzy.

"Stepping away from day-to-day gyrations can help you adhere to your long-term goals." —Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust

Other concerns include ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, the looming possibility of a federal government shutdown on Friday, uncertainty over Brexit, and inversions in the yield curve, Hyzy adds. Yield curve inversions—when returns for short-term bonds become higher than those for long-term bonds—may signal a weakening economy. Given these conditions, market volatility is likely to continue for weeks or months to come, according to Maintain a Long-Term Approach During This Buyer’s Strike,” the latest Investment Insights report from the Chief Investment Office.

Yet there are encouraging signs as well, Hyzy notes. While the pace of growth is slowing, the U.S. economy should continue to grow in 2019, thanks to consumer spending. “This should support corporate earnings growth of 5% to 6% or better for next year,” he believes. “And we continue to favor equities.” A trade agreement and/or signs that the Federal Reserve is scaling back plans for further rate increases would help stabilize markets, Hyzy adds.

What should investors do right now?
As stressful as volatility can be, attempts to “time” markets by buying or selling in anticipation of short-term swings is a difficult and risky process, Hyzy notes. If anything, investors should fight the impulse to follow every market shift. “Stepping away from day-to-day gyrations can help you adhere to your long-term goals,” he says. “We believe the best path is to develop a comprehensive plan, maintain a diversified portfolio objective, and deploy a disciplined approach to rebalancing during extremes in the markets,” he adds.

Listen to “Bulls, Bears and Volatility," an episode of the Merrill Lynch Perspectives Podcast, for more insights on how to respond to the market’s ups and downs. And check out "Outlook 2019: Answers to 7 Key Questions" for the CIO’s take on what to expect from the markets and the economy in the New Year.

Information is as of 12/18/18
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Opinions are those of the author and are subject to change.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Equity securities are subject to stock market fluctuations that occur in response to economic and business developments.
Investing in fixed-income securities may involve certain risks, including the credit quality of individual issuers, possible prepayments, market or economic developments
International investing presents certain risks not associated with investing solely in the U.S. Investing in emerging markets may involve greater risks than investing in more developed countries. In addition, concentration of investments in a single region may result in greater volatility.

 

 

December 5, 2018

Why the Market Is Still Volatile & How the Fed Could Help

THE DOW’S DECLINE OF NEARLY 800 POINTS TUESDAY signaled ongoing fears of slower economic growth, with volatility likely to continue into the new year, says Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust. “Housing weakness, wider credit spreads, and an inversion at a few points on the yield curve are all contributing to higher volatility and lower prices,” he notes.

Credit spreads refer to the difference in return, or yield, between U.S. Treasury bonds and higher-risk corporate bonds of the same duration, Hyzy explains. The yield curve reflects the difference in return rates between short-term and long-term government bonds. Widening spreads and yield curve inversions (when yields for short-term bonds become higher than those for long-term bonds) both are seen as potential signs of a weakening economy.

"The Federal Reserve could help stabilize markets by signaling that interest rates are at an appropriate level, but that isn’t likely until next year." —Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer for Merrill Lynch and U.S. Trust

“The Federal Reserve could help stabilize markets by signaling that interest rates are at an appropriate level,” Hyzy adds, “but that isn’t likely until next year.” Also needed: greater evidence that the U.S. and China are serious about resolving their trade differences. “Until we get confirmation in these two areas, market activity is likely to remain choppy and directionless,” says Hyzy.

For a closer look at the underlying causes of market volatility and what steps investors can consider in response, listen to the latest episode of The Merrill Lynch Perspectives Podcast, Bulls, Bears and Volatility, featuring Chris Hyzy, along with Candace Browning, Head of BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, and Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research.

Tune in to “Bulls, Bears and Volatility” here, and check out other episodes of The Merrill Lynch Perspectives Podcast, also available by subscription on iTunes, Google Play and Spotify.

Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Asset allocation, diversification and rebalancing do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.
Equity securities are subject to stock market fluctuations that occur in response to economic and business developments.
Investing in fixed-income securities may involve certain risks, including the credit quality of individual issuers, possible prepayments, market or economic developments and yields and share price fluctuations due to changes in interest rates. When interest rates go up, bond prices typically drop, and vice versa.
International investing presents certain risks not associated with investing solely in the U.S. These include, for instance, risks related to fluctuations in the value of the U.S. dollar relative to the value of other currencies, custody arrangements made for a fund’s foreign holdings, political risks, differences in accounting procedures and the lesser degree of public information required to be provided by non-U.S. companies.
Investing in emerging markets may involve greater risks than investing in more developed countries. In addition, concentration of investments in a single region may result in greater volatility.

 

 

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*Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. No investment program is risk-free, and a systematic investing plan does not ensure a profit  or protect against a loss in declining markets. Any investment plan should be subject to periodic review for changes in your individual circumstances, including changes in market conditions and your financial ability to continue purchases.

It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

Asset allocation, diversification, dollar cost averaging and rebalancing do not ensure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The opinions expressed are those of the Global Wealth & Investment Management Chief Investment Office (GWIM CIO) only and are subject to change. While some of the information included draws upon research published by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, this information is neither reviewed nor approved by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. This information and any discussion should not be construed as a personalized and individual recommendation, which should be based on your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation and needs. This information and any discussion also is not intended as a specific offer by Merrill Lynch, its affiliates, or any related entity to sell or provide, or a specific invitation for a consumer to apply for, any particular retail financial product or service. Investments and opinions are subject to change due to market conditions and the opinions and guidance may not be profitable or realized. Any information presented in connection with BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research is general in nature and is not intended to provide personal investment advice. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any specific person who may receive it. Investors should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized.

Neither Merrill Lynch nor any of its affiliates or financial advisors provide legal, tax or accounting advice. You should consult your legal and/or tax advisors before making any financial decisions.

The investments discussed have varying degrees of risk. Some of the risks involved with equities include the possibility that the value of the stocks may fluctuate in response to events specific to the companies or markets, as well as economic, political or social events in the U.S. or abroad. Bonds are subject to interest rate, inflation and credit risks. Investments in high-yield bonds may be subject to greater market fluctuations and risk of loss of income and principal than securities in higher rated categories. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks, including foreign currency risk and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are magnified for investments made in emerging markets. Investments in a certain industry or sector may pose additional risk due to lack of diversification and sector concentration. Investments in real estate securities can be subject to fluctuations in the value of the underlying properties, the effect of economic conditions on real estate values, changes in interest rates, and risk related to renting properties, such as rental defaults. There are special risks associated with an investment in commodities, including market price fluctuations, regulatory changes, interest rate changes, credit risk, economic changes and the impact of adverse political or financial factors. 

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